Exclusive/ Leo box office day 1 prediction: Thalapathy Vijay-Trisha film likely to mint ₹100 crore worldwide

Leo starring Thalapathy Vijay is scheduled to hit the big screens on October 19. Speculated to be a part of Lokesh Cinematic Universe (LCU), the film has created a strong buzz among the audiences and the skyrocketing advance booking figures are a testament to it. To assess more closely how the film will fare at the box office on the opening day and the days following its release, we at Republic spoke to trade experts who made the following observations.

3 things you need to know

• Leo is an action-thriller starring Thalapathy Vijay in the lead role and Sanjay Dutt as an antagonist.
• The film will mark the second collaboration between Lokesh Kanagaraj after the 2021 movie Master.
• Vijay’s last movie was Varisu which collected Rs 178.14 crore at the domestic box office.

(Thalapathy Vijay in a scene in Leo | Image: IMDb)

How much will Leo mint on its opening day of release in Southern states?

(Thalapathy Vijay and Trisha Krishnan in a scene from Leo | Image: IMDb)

The advance booking collections of Leo have been sensational with tickets worth Rs 38.4 crores in India alone, as per Sacnilk. With these numbers, the film is expected to amass a decent box-office collection. Trade analyst Ramesh Bala is of the opinion that the Lokesh Kanagaraj movie will collect a comfortable Rs 100 crore on the first day of release. “The movie is going to do well in the Southern state, the advance booking numbers overseas are phenomenal, in the North, we will have to wait till the movie opens and see how the word of mouth works.” Talking about the movie’s collection estimates, the trade analyst said, “The movie should do Rs 100 crore day 1 total. Out of which Rs 40 crore will come from India and Rs 40 crore from overseas.” Industry tracker, Manobala also mirrored the thought of his contemporary and mentioned, “As of now the film is expected to take worldwide opening the range of 90 cr to 100 cr.”

Will Thalapathy Vijay starrer surpass Jailer, PS-1 and other record-holding movies overseas?

(Anirudh Ravichander and Lokesh Kanagraj | Image: IMDb)

Overseas, Leo has already registered history by selling the most number of advance tickets for day 1 for an Indian movie. The current advance sold tickets count of Leo is approx 16 lakh and it is expected to finish around 20 lakh for the opening day, as per Sacnilk. Predicting the film’s total day 1 collection, trade expert Akshay Rathi confirmed that the film will register more than Rs 110 crore and will be ‘historic’ worldwide. Talking about the hype surrounding Leo overseas Manobala said, “Actually the opening numbers are due to the buzz created for the film. Now how well Leo performs in the coming days will decide the full run numbers which are topped by 2 Point 0 - 800 cr Jailer 650 cr Ponniyin Selvan - 500 cr.”

No Hindi release, no multiplex screen, will Leo fare well in North India?

Leo’s release in North India remains a matter of contention even a day before release. It remains unclear whether the film will release with English subtitles, or if the Hindi dubbed version of the movie will be released. As a result, experts feel that it will affect the film's collection in the belt. Manobala claimed, “In North India, multiplexes are not screening the film due to the OTT deal, hence the opening will be less than 5 cr.” Ramesh Bala added that due to fewer promotions the “awareness about Leo is low” in the North. He further said that it would have been ‘easier’ for the audiences to watch the film if it were to be released in multiplexes as well.

(Lokesh Kanagaraj with Thalapathy Vijay file photo | Image: IMDb)

Overall, industry trackers are of the opinion that with a combination of Thalapathy Vijay, the craftsmanship of Lokesh Kanagaraj and the music of Anirudh Ravichander, Leo is eyeing to be a blockbuster hit.